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Banking & Finance

Soft Q4, Cautious Forecasts Send NCino Stock Price Lower

By Jenny Callison, posted Apr 2, 2025
Tuesday’s quarterly and year-end earnings report from Wilmington-based nCino sent the company’s stock down more than 25%, although the share price was ticking back up Wednesday afternoon.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended Jan. 31, the cloud-based banking software firm posted total revenues of $141.4 million, a 14% increase from $123.7 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024. Subscription revenues for Q4 were $125.0 million, up from $107.5 million one year ago, an increase of 16%. Both revenue figures reflected the company’s earlier guidance for the quarter.

A trouble spot was the quarter’s year-over-year increase in expenses, resulting in a net loss of $18.6 million, as compared with nCino’s fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter net gain of nearly $1.2 million. This quarter’s net loss per share was $0.16.

The softer-than-anticipated fourth quarter ended Jan. 31 was counterbalanced somewhat by the revenue growth shown over nCino’s 2025 fiscal year. Losses for the year were smaller, year over year.

Total revenues for the year were $540.7 million, a 13% increase from $476.5 million in fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 subscription revenues were $469.2 million, a year-over-year increase of 15% to $409.5 million. Operating losses were down more than 50% year over year, from $39.5 million in fiscal 2024 to $18.1 million in fiscal 2025.

The company’s net loss for the year was just shy of $38 million, compared to the net loss in fiscal 2024 of $42.3 million.

Results in total led to nCino’s cautious outlook for Q1 of fiscal 2026 and the new year as a whole. The company’s guidance forecasts first-quarter total revenues between $138.75 million and $140.75 million and subscription revenues between $121.75 million and $123.75 million. Neither projection foresees quarter-over-quarter revenue growth.

For the 2026 fiscal year as a whole, nCino sees healthier growth, projecting total revenues of between $574.5 million and $578.5 million, and subscription revenues of between $503 million and $507 million.

In Tuesday afternoon’s earnings call, nCino’s new CEO addressed the challenges the company faced in the fourth quarter and even before.

“Our ability to execute over the past couple of years was significantly impacted by macroeconomic headwinds beyond our control,” said Sean Desmond, who in February succeeded Pierre Naudé in the top position. “The rapid rise in interest rates in 2022 caused the banks to pull back on spending, and the liquidity crisis in early 2023 led to even greater caution around large-scale technology investments.” (Read more about Desmond and his plans for the company in an in-depth Q&A)

Some internal factors also slowed nCino’s sales momentum and new bookings growth, Desmond added. He pointed to nCino’s slower-than-anticipated launch of its consumer lending product and noted that some customers delayed purchasing decisions until nCino finished integrating data from newly acquired DocFox into its platform.

“We were also too optimistic in expecting a drop in interest rates to drive an increase in mortgage activity,” Desmond said. “Additionally, our sales execution and sense of urgency in certain international markets, most notably Europe, was not as crisp as it needed to be. Some of these challenges created compounding headwinds that further impacted our new bookings momentum in fiscal 2025 and our chief contributors to our fiscal 2026 revenue outlook, which is below our expectations. The good news is that we have already taken decisive action to address these challenges that have impacted us, and I am confident they are squarely behind us.”

On Tuesday, ahead of its earnings release, nCino officials announced that its board of directors had authorized a stock repurchase program that would allow the company to repurchase up to $100 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock. Any such transactions would be done at opportune times and through advantageous means, the news release stated.

Why the buyback? Analysts say that companies may repurchase quantities of their own stock as an investment in themselves. The strategy may also increase the value of shares outstanding on the market, benefiting investors. A buyback is also a signal to the market that the company is confident about its future.

“Our stock repurchase authorization reflects the Board’s confidence in our long-term strategy and belief that repurchasing shares of nCino common stock at present valuations is a very attractive use of the Company’s capital,” Desmond said in the release. “We are confident in our ability to generate increasing amounts of free cash flow and are committed to continue to strategically deploy capital where we believe it can generate stockholder value.”

At press time Wednesday, nCino’s shares were trading at $22.43 on the Nasdaq exchange, a partial rebound from a price-per-share of $18.92 when markets opened Wednesday morning. Prior to nCino’s earnings report release at about 4 p.m. Wednesday, the shares were trading at $28.12.
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